tailodds FORECAST

Schedule: a typical Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2861 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL ODDS

DL 2861 · SEA → LAX

departs 5:30 PM PT · arrives 8:13 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 124h before departure

Typical odds Too early for a weather forecast — these are typical odds for this flight on a Monday in October, from the weather this date has had in past years (the range shows how much they varied). They’ll switch to forecast-based odds about 3 days before departure.

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
22% chance · ±3 pts +0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE Low. This is mostly a starting point from history; weather forecasts haven't kicked in yet.
MOSTLY HISTORY WEATHER FORECASTS LIVE IN THE AIR 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 6.9d Now 2d 1d 12h 6h Departs Lands

How late will it get to LAX?

  1. On time or early
    77%
  2. 15–30 min late
    9%
  3. 30 min–1 hour late
    7%
  4. 1–2 hours late
    4%
  5. Over 2 hours late
    2%
  6. Cancelled
    <1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.