Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2865
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
DL 2865 · ATL → GRR
departs 9:59 PM ET · arrives 11:54 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 9h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 24%
Sat 10/3 16%
Sun 10/4 20%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 15%
Wed 10/7 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at GRR more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±0 pts
+22 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GRR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +22 pts in 24h
+22 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +21 pts in 24h
+21 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at GRR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to GRR?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
29%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at GRR that day
↑
9pm departures from ATL are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
GRR (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.82 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.