Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2869
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
DL 2869 · DCA → DTW
departs 6:00 AM ET · arrives 7:29 AM ET
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 6%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 6%
Sun 10/4 5%
Mon 10/5 5%
Tue 10/6 5%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
↑
Other factors
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.16 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.