Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2870
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
DL 2870 · SEA → SFO
departs 7:20 AM PT · arrives 9:38 AM PT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 30%
Mon 10/5 28%
Fri 10/9 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
−10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −26 pts in 24h
−26 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 50% of the time recently
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.