Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2954
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
DL 2954 · MSP → BZN
departs 10:23 PM CT · arrives 11:52 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 11%
Sat 10/3 8%
Sun 10/4 14%
Mon 10/5 11%
Tue 10/6 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at BZN more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BZN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at BZN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BZN?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
MSP is busy at that time
↑
Arrivals into BZN at that hour are often late
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
Visibility down to 2 mi forecast at MSP that day
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 2 mi Precip none
BZN (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.