Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 3070
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
DL 3070 · ATL → ILM
departs 9:20 PM ET · arrives 10:56 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 15h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 22%
Sat 10/3 24%
Sun 10/4 16%
Mon 10/5 14%
Tue 10/6 8%
Wed 10/7 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±2 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at ILM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ILM?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from ATL are often late
↑
ATL is busy at that time
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ILM (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.