Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 3086
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
DL 3086 · ATL → PNS
departs 9:34 PM ET · arrives 9:47 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 45%
Mon 10/5 18%
Fri 10/9 18%
Sat 10/10 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at PNS more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PNS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at PNS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PNS?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from ATL are often late
↑
Other factors
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
↓
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at ATL that day
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
PNS (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.