Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 3185
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
DL 3185 · STL → MSP
departs 5:36 PM CT · arrives 7:15 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 17%
Sat 10/3 12%
Sun 10/4 16%
Mon 10/5 15%
Tue 10/6 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from STL are often late
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.18 in
MSP (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.