Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 3188
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
DL 3188 · STL → MSP
departs 11:18 AM CT · arrives 12:55 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 7%
Sat 10/3 7%
Sun 10/4 8%
Mon 10/5 8%
Tue 10/6 8%
Wed 10/7 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at STL that day
↑
11am departures from STL are often late
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 3.66667 mi Precip 0.33 in
MSP (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.