Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 866 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

DL 866 · MIA → DTW

departs 8:26 PM ET · arrives 11:42 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 29h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±3 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 26 kt, 0.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ 8pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at DTW that day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ DTW usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.83 in

DTW (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 866 · MIA → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?