Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1040
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
F9 1040 · MCO → RDU
departs 7:40 AM ET · arrives 9:35 AM ET
Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 9%
Sat 10/3 12%
Sun 10/4 10%
Mon 10/5 10%
Tue 10/6 7%
Wed 10/7 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
RDU (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.