Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1204
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
F9 1204 · MIA → PHL
departs 9:21 PM ET · arrives 12:27 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Wed 9/30 33%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 38%
Sat 10/3 32%
Sun 10/4 31%
Mon 10/5 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 27 kt, 0.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
9pm departures from MIA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.63 in
PHL (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.