Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1286
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
F9 1286 · BNA → MCO
departs 11:12 AM CT · arrives 2:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Wed 9/30 15%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 19%
Sun 10/4 22%
Mon 10/5 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 17% of the time recently
↑
11am departures from BNA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.