Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1418
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
F9 1418 · IAH → MCO
departs 1:16 PM CT · arrives 4:53 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 48%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 26%
Sat 10/3 29%
Sun 10/4 32%
Mon 10/5 26%
Tue 10/6 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±3 pts
−9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
26%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.15 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.