Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1602
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
F9 1602 · LAS → PHL
departs 10:13 PM PT · arrives 6:00 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Wed 9/30 27%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 37%
Sat 10/3 25%
Sun 10/4 43%
Mon 10/5 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 41% of the time recently
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
10pm departures from LAS are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHL (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.