Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1815
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
F9 1815 · AUS → DEN
departs 6:30 AM CT · arrives 7:49 AM MT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 11%
Mon 10/5 12%
Fri 10/9 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
−10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 1,033 ft, 2.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from AUS are usually not late
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 1.69 in
DEN (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.