Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1954
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
F9 1954 · MCO → BQN
departs 11:17 PM ET · arrives 2:10 AM AT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 47%
Mon 10/5 31%
Fri 10/9 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at BQN more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±0 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BQN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −14 pts in 24h
−14 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at BQN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to BQN?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into BQN at that hour are often late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
11pm departures from MCO are usually not late
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
BQN (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.