Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1954
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
F9 1954 · MCO → BQN
departs 11:17 PM ET · arrives 2:10 AM AT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Sat 10/3 22%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 20%
Wed 10/7 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at BQN more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.1d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BQN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at BQN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to BQN?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at BQN that day
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
BQN is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.13 in
BQN (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.