F9 2013 · TTN → MCO

departs 7:39 PM ET · arrives 10:15 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±2 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ TTN is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at TTN that day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

TTN (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 2013 · TTN → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?