F9 2111 · PHL → ORD

departs 11:53 AM ET · arrives 1:13 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±11 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
42%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling10,143 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.96 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 2111 · PHL → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?