Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2178
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
F9 2178 · FLL → RDU
departs 2:55 PM ET · arrives 5:09 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Thu 10/1
Sun 10/4 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave FLL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at FLL that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
2pm departures from FLL are often late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
Weather at each end
FLL (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.84 in
RDU (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.