Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2452
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
F9 2452 · MCO → CLT
departs 3:00 PM ET · arrives 4:58 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Wed 9/30 22%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 21%
Sat 10/3 23%
Sun 10/4 26%
Mon 10/5 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at CLT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CLT?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↑
3pm departures from MCO are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
CLT (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.