Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2615
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
F9 2615 · LGA → MCO
departs 8:29 PM ET · arrives 11:32 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 47%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 60%
Sat 10/3 26%
Sun 10/4 42%
Mon 10/5 37%
Tue 10/6 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±3 pts
+14 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
54%
Arrive 1h+ late
25%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 37% of the time recently
↑
8pm departures from LGA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.