Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2615
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Tomorrow
F9 2615 · LGA → MCO
departs 8:29 PM ET · arrives 11:32 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Wed 9/30
Thu 10/1 30%
Fri 10/2 41%
Sat 10/3 26%
Sun 10/4 42%
Mon 10/5 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 34% of the time recently
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.