Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2615
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
F9 2615 · LGA → MCO
departs 8:29 PM ET · arrives 11:32 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 6h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 9/30 22%
Thu 10/1 30%
Fri 10/2 41%
Sat 10/3 26%
Sun 10/4 42%
Mon 10/5 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±4 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 34% of the time recently
↑
8pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.