F9 2638 · SFO → PHX

departs 1:18 PM PT · arrives 3:28 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 AM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

55% chance · ±0 pts +17 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 38% of the time recently

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ 1pm departures from SFO are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at SFO that day

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 2638 · SFO → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?