Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2638
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
F9 2638 · SFO → PHX
departs 7:08 PM PT · arrives 9:18 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 47%
Fri 10/2 41%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 38%
Mon 10/5 38%
Tue 10/6 27%
Wed 10/7 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 38% of the time recently
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 0.8 mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.