F9 2868 · MCO → SJU

departs 8:12 PM ET · arrives 11:22 PM AT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±2 pts −15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SJU?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ 8pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

SJU (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling3,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.08 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 2868 · MCO → SJU

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJU?