Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2886
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
F9 2886 · DFW → MCO
departs 8:14 PM CT · arrives 12:08 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 27%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 29%
Sun 10/4 39%
Mon 10/5 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
68%
chance · ±8 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
68%
Leave 15+ late
61%
Arrive 1h+ late
33%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
68%
Yes 68%
No 32%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
61%
Yes 61%
No 39%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −12 pts in 24h
−12 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
29%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
16%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, 1.6 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
8pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 1.58 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.