Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3221
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
F9 3221 · RSW → CVG
departs 6:01 PM ET · arrives 8:35 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±0 pts
−15 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
36%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
9%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −15 pts in 24h
−15 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave RSW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Arrive at CVG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
How late will it get to CVG?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
9%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 44 kt, cloud base down to 1,400 ft, visibility down to 0.75 mi, 1.9 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at RSW that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
RSW usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
RSW (origin)
Gusts 44 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 0.75 mi Precip 0.79 in
CVG (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.