Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3581
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
F9 3581 · SNA → SFO
departs 1:16 PM PT · arrives 2:58 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 31%
Mon 10/5 25%
Fri 10/9 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 36% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↓
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at SFO that day
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.