Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3581
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
F9 3581 · SNA → SFO
departs 1:16 PM PT · arrives 2:58 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 AM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Sat 10/3 18%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 36% of the time recently
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
SNA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.