Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3581 LANDED 7:01 PM PT, ~4 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2 Today

F9 3581 · SNA → SFO

took off 6:00 PM PT · landed 7:01 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±1 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 36% of the time recently

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at SFO that day

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SNA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 3581 · SNA → SFO

Odds over time