F9 3837 · LAS → OAK

departs 4:19 PM PT · arrives 6:07 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to OAK?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ 4pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at OAK that day

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

OAK (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 3837 · LAS → OAK

Odds over time

How late will it get to OAK?