Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3913
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
F9 3913 · MCO → LAS
departs 7:21 PM ET · arrives 9:17 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 39%
Sat 10/3 36%
Sun 10/4 34%
Mon 10/5 30%
Tue 10/6 13%
Wed 10/7 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
34%
chance · ±1 pts
−16 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
34%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −16 pts in 24h
−16 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −13 pts in 24h
−13 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
7pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Gusts to 26 kt forecast at MCO that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.