Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3913
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
F9 3913 · MCO → LAS
departs 6:16 PM ET · arrives 8:10 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Fri 10/2 39%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 34%
Mon 10/5 30%
Tue 10/6 13%
Wed 10/7 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.18 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.