Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4018
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
F9 4018 · DFW → MCO
departs 12:10 PM CT · arrives 4:12 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 19%
Sat 10/3 20%
Sun 10/4 25%
Mon 10/5 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±2 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
30%
Cancelled
10%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
39%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
10%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, 1.6 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↑
12pm departures from DFW are often late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 1.58 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.