Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4018
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
F9 4018 · DFW → MCO
departs 10:51 AM CT · arrives 2:53 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Thu 10/1 68%
Fri 10/2 50%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 25%
Mon 10/5 21%
Tue 10/6 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±6 pts
+17 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +17 pts in 24h
+17 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.20 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.18 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.