Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4092
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
F9 4092 · TPA → BWI
departs 8:15 AM ET · arrives 10:45 AM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 16%
Mon 10/5 11%
Fri 10/9 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.57 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.