Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4131
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
F9 4131 · IAH → LAS
departs 1:17 PM CT · arrives 2:29 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 51%
Wed 9/30 34%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 30%
Sat 10/3 26%
Sun 10/4 28%
Mon 10/5 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±5 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 4,200 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.04 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.