Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4131
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
F9 4131 · IAH → LAS
departs 1:17 PM CT · arrives 2:29 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 45%
Fri 10/2 33%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 28%
Mon 10/5 27%
Tue 10/6 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±4 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,400 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at IAH that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.37 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.