F9 4135 · MIA → CLE

departs 4:08 PM ET · arrives 7:15 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at CLE more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±0 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to CLE?

On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 1.75 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at MIA that day

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ 4pm departures from MIA are often late

↓ CLE usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip1.25 in

CLE (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 4135 · MIA → CLE

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLE?