F9 4158 · SFO → LAS

departs 11:20 AM PT · arrives 1:10 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±3 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from SFO are often late

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 4158 · SFO → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?