Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4158
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
F9 4158 · SFO → LAS
departs 3:43 PM PT · arrives 5:30 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 3:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 52%
Fri 10/2 37%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 31%
Tue 10/6 24%
Wed 10/7 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 32% of the time recently
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
3pm departures from SFO are often late
↓
Visibility down to 2 mi forecast at SFO that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 2 mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.