Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4412
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
F9 4412 · FLL → BWI
departs 9:28 AM ET · arrives 12:10 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 20h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 23%
Sat 10/3 22%
Sun 10/4 21%
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±4 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave FLL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at FLL that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 32% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
FLL (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.72 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.