Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4473
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
F9 4473 · ATL → STL
departs 4:43 PM ET · arrives 5:37 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 20%
Sat 10/3 26%
Sun 10/4 33%
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 27%
Wed 10/7 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
4pm departures from ATL are often late
↑
This flight has been late 30% of the time recently
↓
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at ATL that day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
STL (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 3.66667 mi Precip 0.33 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.