Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4473
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
F9 4473 · ATL → STL
departs 8:05 AM ET · arrives 8:57 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 38%
Fri 10/2 22%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 33%
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 27%
Wed 10/7 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 30% of the time recently
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at ATL that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into STL at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 4,200 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.40 in
STL (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.