Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4551
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
F9 4551 · MIA → LAS
departs 10:15 PM ET · arrives 12:22 AM PT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 39%
Sat 10/3 35%
Sun 10/4 37%
Mon 10/5 39%
Wed 10/7 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
47%
chance · ±3 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
47%
Leave 15+ late
50%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 50% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 51% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 1.75 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at MIA that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 31% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 1.25 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.