Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4556
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
F9 4556 · ATL → MCO
departs 6:04 PM ET · arrives 7:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Wed 9/30 16%
Thu 10/1
Sat 10/3 22%
Sun 10/4 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.