Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4556
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
F9 4556 · ATL → MCO
departs 12:42 PM ET · arrives 2:23 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Thu 10/1 29%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 28%
Tue 10/6 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±6 pts
+15 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at ATL that day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↓
12pm departures from ATL are usually not late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.38 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.18 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.